2012 PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS

Here’s my predictions for presidential politics in the next two years:

Republicans

Sarah Palin: Will run. Campaign will lose steam during the primary debates, won’t be seen as presidential enough, especially on the international scale.

Newt Gingrich: Probably the most intelligent of all the possible candidates, straight shooter, broad-based knowledge of domestic and international affairs. Opponents will leak some disparaging aspects of his personal life of years past, which won’t work. He stands the second best chance to win the nomination. Would be a formidable debater who few could match up to.

Mitt Romney: Would be a deja vu rerun of 2008. Attractive, smart, but would have a hard time overcoming Mormonism for the majority of voters on a national scale.

Mike Huckabee: Likeable, affable, talented, good record as a governor. Like Palin, may have overexposed himself on the television show. People will see him as an entertainer now, not a president.

Tim Pawlenty: Makes good appearance but doesn’t have national steam.

Haley Barbour: Unattractive for modern media campaigning on a national level. Southern drawl (unfortunately) would become a drawback.

John Bolton: Doesn’t stand a chance.

Jeb Bush: America is not going to elect another Bush.

Bobby Jindal: Smart man. I could see him as a VP pick on someone’s ticket. Wouldn’t win the nomination.

Donald Trump: The dark horse. Watch for Trump to trump the field if he gets going. Blunt speaking, talks about reviving national pride and international image which is lacking on all points. Could run as a non-political, successful businessman who gets the job done. If he runs, voters would turn to him like they turned to Ross Perot in 1992, only Perot ran as an Independent, while Trump would have the GOP behind him.

Democrats

Barack Obama: The Democratic Party will likely nominate the incumbent president, providing they see him as a sure winner. And, that could be a problem, particularly if the economy continues to flounder and the international scene — particularly the radical Islamic issue — continues to crumble. Thus, the path of Obama will likely follow the path of Jimmy Carter, a one-term president.

Another dark cloud looming, which will be more of an issue in the next election, is the perennial question of his legitimacy and the haunting secrecy surrounding his failure to release college records.

Joe Biden: He would run only if he has already ascended to the presidency if Obama fails to serve out his term. Biden is seen by both parties as a shoot-from-the-hip bloviater, and would not be elected.

Hillary Clinton: Another dark horse. Hillary is looming quietly, waiting for the right time to make a move. If Obama shows any weakness, or fails to run for any reason, she’ll rise to the occasion, and that would make the election a very tight race.

Shoot…

29 Responses to 2012 PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS

  1. Ned Valois February 9, 2011 at 10:31 pm #

    Romney vs Obama

  2. Leslie February 9, 2011 at 10:52 pm #

    President Reagan was an entertainer before presidency…..dont rule Romney out just yet. Let’s not forget Rudy Guilliani…..

  3. Darrell February 9, 2011 at 11:08 pm #

    Good analysis, Marshall. I believe Allen West will gets the Republican nod, if he runs. Extremely smart, knowledgeable, fabulous speaker and debater, knows the issues, especially regarding the muslim threat and would take most of black vote from BO if he runs. He would have BO for lunch in any debate. Recognizes the importance of Israel. Has the balls to stand up to international bullies. Was a decorated Army veteran (retired a Lt. Colonel). Although he was involved in a case of forced interrogation; in my book, and that of many other verterans, that’s a plus rather than a negative. His bumper sticker should read: I’d rather be water-boarding.” Go Allen! I believe it’ll be Trump, if not Allen West. Palin doesn’t have a chance to get the nomination, certainly due in part to what the Democrats would say about her. My Republican long shot? Condi Rice, if anyone could talk her into running…which is doubtful. She has the experience and would likely garner a considerable portion of the black and female vote. Regarding the Democrats, I don’t give a damn who they put up as long as they lose.

  4. Frank February 9, 2011 at 11:33 pm #

    There is a long way to go. More will get in. Herman Cain announced. There will be more but I think on an intellectual basis Newt is the class of the field…so far. I like
    Mike [Huckabee} too. But I’ll wait a while. Maybe there’s a dark horse out there I haven’t heard about.

  5. Bahia Abrams February 9, 2011 at 11:58 pm #

    Like my e-mail to you said–Politics is brutal. Machiavelli, one of the most influential figures in history, taught government as it is. In “The Prince,” his handbook of modern politics and foreign policy, Machiavelli describes power–how to get it and how to keep it. He says it is the possession of power that matters, not using power for any good purpose. Power is about force and the money to buy that force and sustain it. The ability to lie is a key to success, manipulate the people, never keep a promise unless it is convenient, and say whatever is expedient at the moment, then do as one pleases. Every potential presidential nominee you named knows how to play the game. I keep asking what is wrong with the American people. We pay their salaries. Why aren’t we strong enough to fire them all and bring in some carefully elected, new blood?

  6. Donald Gilleland February 10, 2011 at 2:01 am #

    I believe we’re in for a surprise. I doubt any of the present front runners will make it to the nomination. I think Adam West, or someone like him, will surface and beat the obvious candidates to the nomination. While Marshall’s analysis is very good, most of the obvious candidates have too much baggage and will be seen as losers from the last election. Someone not even on the scene now could surface and be a formidable candidate. It is simply too early to make a believable prediction.

  7. Donald Gilleland February 10, 2011 at 2:02 am #

    That’s OK

  8. Ed Hensley February 10, 2011 at 3:56 am #

    Put your Sherlock Holmes cap back on Marshall, before you tout Donald Trump
    as POTUS material. Any man that would try to bully a city, to cover his own
    planning faiures, is no more fit for the Oval Office than Obama. Exhibit A:

    Trump loses round in RPV lawsuit
    By Melissa Pamer, Staff Writer
    Posted: 01/13/2011 07:19:05 PM PSTUpdated: 01/14/2011 06:31:51 AM PST

    http://www.dailybreeze.com/ci_17090532?IADID=Search-www.dailybreeze.com-www.dailybreeze.com

    • Ed Hensley February 10, 2011 at 4:11 am #

      I excerpt from the article, a wee fact that shows why Trump is not
      popular with many RPV residents. >

      > Lawyers for the city denied that Rancho Palos Verdes is “hostile” to the project. They point out that 53 of Trump’s 57 planning applications to the municipality have been approved.<

      I predict any effort by the Donald to buy the Oval Office will be about
      as successful as was Meg Whitman's effort to buy the California
      Governor's Office. Gee Meg, thanks a lot for giving us Moonbeam!

  9. Fran of 57 February 10, 2011 at 8:07 am #

    Then there’s Gov. C. Cristi of NJ, a rising star for sure!

    Rep. Paul Ryan, of Wis.

    And let’s not forget the “Paul’s” . . . Ron the father, and Rand, the son . . . . who have made quite a good name, and reputation for themselves! Cetrainly VERY knowledable

    And, ALL of the above honest straight shooters, and far better debaters than Newt!

    Newt had his window of opportunity and it’s long past! And the “personal” life is more than a bad “blip” on his reputation . . . he divorced his wife of many years on her death bed, dying of cancer, for another woman! To most women that is unforgiveable!

  10. Tara February 10, 2011 at 8:34 am #

    How depressing! On both sides of the aisle. Let’s hope that some real leaders without baggage step up over the next two years. But I don’t see it happening.

  11. LES February 10, 2011 at 8:44 am #

    I don’t like any of them. I think we need another Harry Truman, someone who will stand up to the tough tasks and get ‘em done. A patriotic American who can unite the country would be great. Close the borders, kick the UN to the curb, get our factories up and running, fix the Federal Reserve, and deport the illegals, would be a good agenda for starters. Make English the spoken language of the land. I know I sound like a radical, but I’m just going back to the values of my childhood, which worked then and would work again now.

  12. george wolf February 10, 2011 at 8:57 am #

    At least Allen West doesn’t go around apologizing for us. My first reaction was I don’t know him but then realized we really never “know” any of these people. I would be proud to call West my Congressman as opposed to Joe “You Lie” Wilson.

    I’m looking forward to see how it all shakes-out.

  13. Anonymous February 10, 2011 at 9:38 am #

    Life is messy and there are no candidates without some sort of scandal or skeleton in their closet. Americans can forgive almost anything (note I say almost) as long as the person is genuinely sorry for serious lapses of judgment. However, the candidate must be truthful, not evasive, intelligent, some experience is necessary, and love our country and its people. We have been sadly lacking all of that in this administration which is why I, too, believe that we have a one-term president governing now. Having said all of that, I believe that Donald Trump could easily overcome any of his past issues. Newt Gingrich is always the smartest man in the room no matter with whom he is sitting and there is no one on either side of the aisle who could match him in a debate. On the Democrat side, unfortunately for their party, almost to a man, they have supported the failed Stimulus, Cash for Clunkers, and the stream of debt-incurring spending that has put our country’s future in jeopardy. Further, they also supported the monstrous health care bill which will regulate our health care system into oblivion and debt. Obama will have a difficult time also living down his ridicule of our country and its people both at home and abroad, and his thug-like tactics to get his way. Remember him threatening Sen. Nelson of Nebraska that, if Nelson did not support the health care bill, Obama will close the SAC base there? When a president is willing to put the safety of his country at risk for a vote, we have serious issues at the top.

  14. Ron Kenerly February 10, 2011 at 10:31 am #

    The entire bunch in Washington and those that have been thre in the past 50 years is all garbage. West is the only choice as I see it. He may have used harsh tactics to get information but if the situation was reversed, they would have cut off his head probably…so a little powder burn and fright is not an issue….need a heck of a lot more of the same tactics to get to the truth with the current politicians to get them to give straight answers.
    The USA has got to have new blood in the administrative part of the government with new and different ideas and a person with the backbone to do what is right, not what is politically correct or what appeases the minority.

  15. gloriadisanto@sbcglobal.net February 10, 2011 at 10:34 am #

    NEWT WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE MOST KNOWLEDGEABLE AND A BRILLIANT MAN HE IS, READ HIS BOOKS, YOU WILL KNOW THE MAN.
    MY PICK IS NEWT AND MICHELLE BACHMAN.
    I JUST HOPE THERE ISN’T A DOZEN DEBATES WITH ALL THE GOP CANIDATES RIPPING ON EACH OTHER.
    GLORIA DISANTO

  16. Kevin Childers February 10, 2011 at 10:52 am #

    What Americans NEED to do is stop voting for DEMO-GOPs!
    Just visualize a two-sided coin, no matter how you flip it to make a call,
    it is the same damnable coin, and thus, the same political bogusness!

    What Americans NEED to see is that non-Financial companies, i.e. small businesses in this country, have cash holdings upwards to $2 trillion, which these companies are unwilling to use in order to create jobs. “Companies’ willingness to use their cash (1.84 trillion as of March 2010) will play a major role in the strength of the recovery at a time when consumers need jobs to support their spending.

    Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704312104575298652567988246.html

    Point is, Mr. Frank – no candidate, nor current political swindlers, are willing to stick their noses out there, except Obama recently, who requested that these companies use this money to create jobs. But, this will not happen, because companies have cut their expenses, which includes “labor”, the highest expense, which in turn, cuts the expense of health care, etc. So, what motivation then do these companies have to use this cash?

    Mr. Frank – I bring this up in this particular blog because the top potentials on the GOP side, are all out-right disciples of Reagan, aka, Neo-Reaganites. And, Reaganomics or Trickle-down Economics, which basically states, “government will deregulate the flow of the Market, so that companies can profit big time, and then, it is the expection of the deregulators (government) that these companies use that profit, i.e. capital, to invest and create new jobs for Americans.

    But, as we can see, these top companies are not willing to do what trickle-down economics suggests is the only way to have economic growth, which is – Americans must produce, by labor, in order to generate wealth. That is how these companies got that cash anyway! And, without labor, such an abundance of cash will not increase. So, these companies are saving it all for a rainy day, Mr. Frank??

    Americans suffer financially, e.g. home foreclosures, unemployment, credit card debt, etc., and the gap between have and have not continues to grow, and the companies now sitting pretty solid financially with huge assets (capital) … believe they must wait to use this cash, to create jobs, and then, the GOP, the Conservatives in America label Obama as a socialist ?? Where are the jobs, GOPers? Now that you’ve got the House, you are not planning to create jobs, because only businesses with capital can create jobs, right? No, all you GOPers want to do, is cut and defund, just as Reagan did … and the digression continues.

    Unemployment, loss of wealth, loss of home and livelihood, and still, how much money (tax revenue) did Americans give up under Bush and Obama? $1.5 trillion, right? To bailout whom? The very companies now sitting with the cash !!!

    The USA is a slave nation. Nothing less than slavery and economic suppression for tens of millions of people … and when they begin to march in the streets, people will lose their heads, let alone their power.

  17. Ray T February 10, 2011 at 11:15 am #

    Anybody except Obama, Biden or Clinton …….please someone save us !!! tod you so !!!

  18. Christopher Jones February 10, 2011 at 12:26 pm #

    A dark horse who has not yet been mentioned is Jim DeMint of SC. He, and Michelle Bachmann might make a powerful team. DeMint is not running again for Sen in SC. He is a fine man, a very good conservative.
    OK…you could put DeMint with West, too. West is a rising star in the Republican party.
    Palin is a great spark plug, but too polarizing. Let her continue to get under the skin of the limp wristed and spineless bloviators.

  19. Dan Townsend February 10, 2011 at 1:10 pm #

    Donald Trump? It would take a sports arena to hold all the people (including ex-wives) this character has cheated, stiffed and swindled over the years.
    Newt a “straight shooter”?
    David Koch, who owns the Republican Party already, once ran as VP on the Libertarian Party ticket. One of his ideas in that campaign was that “suicide” be made legal, which, I assume would mean that those who assisted would be legally blameless. Talk about cutting the cost of Medicare/Social Security!
    Time to redo your list, Marshall.
    By the way, President Obama couldn’t please his “haters” if he released his genome, blood type or whatever. The New Confederacy types will never be satisfied.
    Where are Bush 43′s military records and police reports–while we’re on the subject?

    • Christopher Jones February 10, 2011 at 1:40 pm #

      I was never a “birther”. I never gave it a thought, until I found Obama has spent over 1 MILLION DOLLARS hiding his birth cert. That sort of raised my eyebrows a tad. At this point, I am wondering why anyone would do that.
      Easy answer to all this. Show the damn birth cert. Just like every other person has. What is the big deal? It only makes one ask, what is he hiding? Why is he hiding it?
      Hate Obama? No, hate his policies. Different thing. He probably would be a nice guy to sit down with and enjoy a glass of fav beverage.
      As for Bush 43′s information, why don’t you ask Dan Rather to get them for you. Oh…sorry…he got someone to make them up for him.
      Too funny.

  20. Anonymous February 10, 2011 at 2:01 pm #

    President Obama came to this presidency with little experience, plenty of far-left Socialist, Communist friends and plenty to hide, which he continues to do. Ridiculing others for their ex-wives, stiffing and swindling should begin with the White House inhabitants. Let’s do this evenly across the board. How about his mentor, Rev. Wright, who is a racist, anti-American, Afro-centric. Obama actually thought people would believe that he could sit under the tutelage of this man for 20 years and then say he did not hear any of that? When Obama was a candidate, I went to the Rev. Wright church website and was shocked at anti-American, etc info there. I e-mailed him directly, asking about all that. Got no response. When Obama became a serious candidate, the web site was changed. Begin with Obama’s wife’s hospital job where she got her salary tripled after then-Senator Obama provided her employer with a million plus in tax-payer money. Let’s move on to his relationship with home-grown terrorist Bill Ayers and his convicted terrorist wife, Anyone remember Ayers’ wife, as president of the SDS, telling Charles Manson, “We’re with you Charlie. You stuck it to the man?” If not, you can find it on the internet. Van Jones – go to the internet and listen to this hater. Valerie Jarrett, slum lord who took more American taxpayer dollars to build housing, than ran it into the ground. How about the Attorney General whose office refused to follow through with prosecuting the New Black Panther party members who violated the civil rights of and threatened caucasians and conservative blacks? Whew. I’m getting tired here and the list continues. Check out his czars, all of whom he is proud to put to work at our expense, and you will learn what they stand for. It is not a pretty sight. In the years Obama has been president he has used hate speech against the American people with such comments as, “Shut up and get out of the way,” “They are clinging to their guns and religion and are against people who are not like them,” “The have anti-immigrant sentiment to explain their frustrations,” “They are like Nazis,” They are a mob rule,” “We should punish our enemies, those who don’t agree with us,” (those against the Dream Act) “Republicans are hostage-takers and opposed to tax cuts for the middle class,” (another lie) “If they bring a knife to the fight, we’ll bring a gun,” “Argue with your neighbors, get in their faces,” “I don’t want to quell anger,” “I’m itching for a fight,” and one of our most memorable was when he used the filthy term ‘tea bagger’ to describe those in the Tea Party who want lower taxes and smaller government. Well, now, that was just part of the disgusting language and friendship list of the man who is supposed to be an example to our children and grandchildren and whom we expect to be decent and honest. Another time, I will jump in here and discuss the unconstitutional things he has done. I don’t care what party any of the presidential wannabes belong to, I believe they should be the best we can get. Party affiliation should not come first and we should not defend anyone because of their party. President Obama does not deserve a pass just because of his race or his party. He is what he is. We must admit it and move on, hoping to get someone of quality in, in 2012, to replace this man who has damaged and divided our country.

  21. Christopher Jones February 10, 2011 at 4:44 pm #

    Mr. Anonymous.
    WOW.
    Couldn’t have said it better.

  22. F J M February 10, 2011 at 8:17 pm #

    Very astute Marshall. Keep up the vigil.

  23. Ashley February 11, 2011 at 10:54 pm #

    I may have missed something, but you said Newt stands the second-best chance of getting the GOP nomination. Who stands the best chance?

    • Carmelo Junior February 15, 2011 at 8:56 pm #

      Newt is not going to make it. Conservatives don’t like him. ZERO chances to win Iowa, NH and SC. The GOP had enough with old , boring, white McCain.

      The two big contenders are NOW Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. These two will fight for Iowa and South Carolina. The key for Palin to beat him will be MONEY and attack ads about his disastrous record as Arkansas governor.

      Palin will be the star of the debates: the youngest, the historic candidate, the more attractive and the Tea Party andti Obama queen. She will control those primaries from start to end.

  24. Dr. Jamie Marlowe February 13, 2011 at 10:02 am #

    John Thune?????

  25. Carmelo Junior February 15, 2011 at 8:47 pm #

    I think Sarah Palin rolls to the nomination. Starting on September her powerful speeches and charisma will be unstoppable. She wins Iowa by a narrow margin against Huckabee. Comes close to win New Hamphire and has a big win in South Carolina with the help of Nikki Haley and the Tea Party.
    Is defeated in Michigan but takes Florida, California, New York and Texas. Game over by April.

    Allen West no chances with his extreme stances on English Only, nationalism and anti Hispanics. He might even hurt Sarah Palin if she picks him as VP.

  26. Carmelo Junior February 15, 2011 at 8:59 pm #

    One more thing to remember about Sarah Palin: she will have three forces on her side: the Tea Party, Talk Radio and Billy and Franklin Graham. Enough said.